“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”

– Albert Einstein

In teaching statistics and statistical analysis, we introduce a number of assumptions that tend to take on a life of their own. Events are random or can be treated as such. If something is unusual enough, we can take that as a proxy for abnormality. Context and content can be safely ignored. The variables we are intent on are independent of—well, everything. Only when the black box of the statistical software surprises us do we—perhaps—question rather than dismiss our assumptions.

At some point, reality may catch up with you. You may feel as if it is chasing you in the guise of the grim reaper. You may feel as if you are living a horror film in daily life, like Todd Haynes’ film Safe. Then, to save your psyche, you may salve your anxiety with the idea of the new normal. You may tell yourself that what is true now is the baseline for moving forward. But it isn’t. Life evolved under conditions of no grid, no synthetic poisons, no nuclear waste, etc. You cannot negotiate a new normal with the life that evolved over the course of 300 million years.

So why bring it up? Because we have to question all our assumptions all the time now. Because it affects medicine right now. Take my microbiome—please. Replace it with a better one. From where? It turns out that in America, as far as we can tell, a normal—i.e. safe and salutary—gut flora is unusual. Not surprising given our penchant for eating poisons and antibiotics. So, I bring it up to point out that this is the time to question all of your assumptions—which is also a good route to personal success in any endeavor.